The world feels a little less predictable right now. The conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices above USD $110 a barrel, closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, and rattled financial markets globally. For New Zealand, that means a weaker dollar, higher fuel costs, and a slower road to recovery than anyone had pencilled in at the start of the year.
But here’s the thing: New Zealand is actually expected to outperform other advanced economies through this shock. The IMF is forecasting average annual GDP growth of 2.3% over the next five years, with lower inflation than our peer nations. That’s not nothing. For international investors hunting for stable returns in an unstable world, New Zealand is looking quietly attractive.
So where does Hawke’s Bay sit in all of this?
Pretty well, as it turns out, despite the challenges facing the local food processing industry, which has been hit by the recent announcement by McCains to close its Hastings plant along with the closure of the frozen packing line at the Heinz Watties site.
Hawke’s Bay recorded the strongest annual growth in commercial property sale volumes of any region in the country, coming in at just under 29% for the period measured.
The Colliers Investor Confidence Survey, conducted in January and April 2026, shows confidence has dropped across most New Zealand markets. That’s not surprising. What is encouraging is that regions with strong primary industries are holding up better than the main centres. Dairy is a good example. The recent Fonterra payout has been significant, and that kind of capital injection filters through quickly into local business confidence and spending decisions.
Hawke’s Bay’s economy is anchored in food production, horticulture, viticulture, and related processing and logistics. These sectors are not immune to fuel price shocks, but they’re also not as exposed as, say, an urban office market or a CBD retail strip. Industrial and logistics properties face the most direct pressure from rising energy costs. But our industrial vacancy rates were already low going into this period, and a robust base provides meaningful cushion.
Activity on the ground
That activity is playing out on the ground. Recent transactions include the sale of the ex-Karamu Holden site on Karamu Road, Hastings, selling unconditionally to Turners Cars. On the leasing side, 43 Corunna Bay Napier, previously occupied by Placemakers, has been leased; 59 Kirkwood Road, Hastings, a 7,930sqm distribution centre, is leased; and the 10,000sqm+ office and warehouse at 1285 Omahu Road, Hastings, is leased to PGG Wrightson to re-home their retail, office and trade operations. These aren’t small deals and they reflect a market with genuine depth.
One broader trend worth watching is the relationship between population movement and commercial property demand. When people move into a region, they bring employment, spending, and the need for workspace. Canterbury is a clear national example of this, with strong net internal migration correlating directly with an 8.5% lift in commercial property sales. Hawke’s Bay has been attracting both residents and businesses for several years now, and that structural shift continues to support demand for quality commercial space.
What should local business owners and investors take from all of this?
Uncertainty is real, but it is not the whole picture. Leasing decisions may take a little longer as businesses seek clarity on their cost base. Rent and value growth will be more modest than it would have been in a pre-war environment. Construction costs are stable for now, though a nine-month supply chain lag means that could shift if global disruption continues.
For those with a medium-term view and an appetite to act while others hesitate, the Hawke’s Bay commercial market is offering solid fundamentals in a region that punches above its weight. That’s a combination worth paying attention to.
Danny Blair is a commercial property specialist with Colliers Hawke’s Bay. For more information, contact Danny on 021 826 496 or danny.blair@colliers.com. Tremain Commercial Ltd, Colliers licensed under the REAA 2008.
