By Tobias Taylor and Phil Borkin — JBWere
If the first weeks of 2026 have felt loud, you’re not imagining it.
Global headlines have been dominated by geopolitical tensions, tariff threats, central bank manoeuvres and dramatic political theatre. The US dollar has swung sharply. Gold has surged. Bond markets have jolted. It has been particularly noisy.
Yet beneath that noise, something more measured is unfolding.
Among all this, global financial markets have, for the most part, taken this turbulence in their stride. Equity markets have risen modestly. Corporate earnings, particularly in the United States, have generally exceeded expectations. Growth remains resilient.
For Hawke’s Bay investors, growers, business owners and retirees, this contrast between unsettling headlines and steady fundamentals is the real story of 2026 so far.
When headlines roar, fundamentals whisper
January showed us that markets can coexist with uncertainty, provided the underlying economic engine remains intact.
Globally, growth indicators have surprised modestly to the upside. US household spending remains solid. Investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure continues at scale.
For Hawke’s Bay, where confidence is often shaped as much by global export demand as by local rainfall, this matters. Apples, wine, meat, timber and kiwifruit all depend on global growth remaining intact. A resilient US consumer, steady European demand and stable Asian markets translate directly into confidence for local producers.
The message is not that risks have vanished, it’s that risk must be kept in perspective.
The Kiwi dollar’s climb
One of the other developments for New Zealanders has been the rise of the New Zealand dollar. The NZD/USD climbed around 5% in January, driven by US dollar weakness and shifting expectations around global growth and policy.
For Hawke’s Bay exporters, a stronger kiwi can tighten margins. A stronger dollar reduces NZD returns on offshore sales. Yet currency markets are rarely linear, often known to overshoot and volatility could continue.
For local investors, diversification across currencies remains valuable. Offshore assets can act as a hedge when the domestic economy softens, currency swings cut both ways.
The local economy
At home, New Zealand’s economy remains in recovery mode.
Stronger-than-expected CPI data in late 2025 lifted market expectations for potential rate hikes later this year. However, we suggest spare capacity remains in the economy, with retail spending subdued, GDP prints modest, and the housing market still soft.
In Hawke’s Bay, the housing market has yet to regain full momentum following the combined impacts of higher rates and the after-effects of Cyclone Gabrielle. Construction pipelines remain cautious.
A boost from India, what does this mean?
One of the most promising structural developments for New Zealand is the NZ-India Free Trade Agreement.
While near-term equity market benefits are modest, the agreement reduces apple tariffs into India from 50% to 25%, subject to volume caps. For Hawke’s Bay, the apple capital of New Zealand, this is important.
The agreement also creates incremental opportunities for kiwifruit and forestry products, with global trade diplomacy connecting directly to orchard rows in Havelock North and port activity in Napier.
Looking through the noise
If January is any guide, 2026 will bring continued political theatre, policy surprises and bouts of market volatility. US and NZ elections loom. Global tensions persist. Inflation will wobble in pockets. Currencies will swing.
But provided growth remains reasonable, inflation contained and corporate earnings intact, markets can function and even prosper amid the noise.
For Hawke’s Bay investors, the takeaway is clear: Stay diversified. Stay disciplined. Dial down the noise and keep your eyes on the long horizon.
This article has been prepared by JBWere (NZ) Limited and is intended to provide general information only. It does not take into account your individual financial situation, objectives or needs and should not be relied on as personalised financial advice. www.jbwere.co.nz
