By Paul Harvey — Williams’ Harvey Registered Valuers
As we begin 2026, New Zealand’s property market presents a complex picture of national optimism tempered by regional caution. For Hawke’s Bay property owners and investors, understanding both the broader economic trends and our specific local dynamics is essential for making informed decisions in the year ahead.
The national economic context
New Zealand’s economy has undergone significant shifts post-COVID. After sharp monetary tightening to combat inflation, the Reserve Bank has progressively cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 5.5% to 2.25% by November 2025. Consumer Price Index inflation now sits at 3.1% (top of the RBNZ’s target band), whilst unemployment has risen to 5.4% nationally. Remarkably, business sentiment has surged dramatically, with the ANZ Business Confidence Index reaching a 30-year high of 74% in December 2025, signalling clear cyclical recovery ahead.
Hawke’s Bay’s regional reality
Our region faces a more challenging position. Employment advertisements are down 11% year-on-year, indicating weaker labour demand. Regional unemployment runs at 4.2% to 5.4% — slightly higher than the national average. Local business sentiment commentary describes cautious recovery with “early signs” of improvement, but most firms remain focused on cost control and cash flow rather than expansion.
Current market statistics
Now that we have full-year figures for 2025, data for Hawke’s Bay show relative stability with very similar MSP, sales volumes, and days on the market over the last three years. The 2025 MSP of $680,000 is down just 0.73% compared to 2024, and sales transactions are up by 2.9% with 2,484 properties sold compared to 2,413 in 2024.
In December 2025, the median sale price dropped 6.2% compared to December 2024, but the sales volume increased by 17% compared to December 2024. The December figures also show a tightening in the ‘Days to Sell’ metric at 36 days (compared to the full-year average of 47 days), though this is offset by rising inventory levels of 19 weeks.
Market characteristics
REINZ Chief Executive Lizzy Ryley notes that “first home buyers and owner-occupiers remained the most active buyer groups, driven by lowered interest rates.” Our analysis of quarterly trends reveals important patterns. The Q4 2024 market showed substantial momentum, with transaction volumes reaching 712 — the highest since 2020. The median reached a three-year low of $660,000 in Q3 2025 before recovering 5.61% in Q4 to $697,000.
Looking ahead to 2026
Market commentators expect only limited price growth, with risks skewed toward further early-year softness. As 2026 is an election year, history suggests approximately 12% fewer transactions during the six-week election lead-up.
The key for Hawke’s Bay participants is recognising that whilst national economic indicators point toward recovery, our regional employment dynamics and higher inventory levels suggest a more gradual improvement path than elsewhere. The market demonstrates stability rather than growth — creating opportunities for well-prepared buyers whilst requiring patience from vendors.
Paul Harvey is the Director of Williams’ Harvey Registered Valuers. email: paulharvey@williamsharvey.co.nz www.williamsharvey.co.nz
