At this time of the year for the last two years, many economists and real estate commentators have been predicting ‘better things’ to come in the following year. And by ‘better things’ in the property market we mean increases in property prices (along with increased sales volume and shorter days to sell). These predictions didn’t really materialise quite as predicted in 2024 and 2025 for most regions.

The real estate market has been relatively static over that time with small increases for a few months offset by small decreases. As we move into 2026 we wonder again will the new year bring an improved market? Firstly, it is worth considering the New Zealand economy which the property market operates within. The economic policies enacted by government should start to bear fruit.

To reference, Economist Tony Alexander: “…the normal 18-24 month lag between an easing of monetary policy and the true stimulatory impacts appearing. The boosting effects will really start to show through in the retail sector in particular come about February next year.

After that the effects will strengthen through 2026.” Supporting this sentiment, 1News reports consumer confidence improvements based on an ASB Investor Confidence Survey; a jump in an increase in confidence measure of 10%, the highest since the pandemic. We are still enjoying net migration gains, albeit at lower levels currently.

The market sentiment is suggesting upward price pressure into the new year. A 5% increase in property prices seems to be the consensus, and what I see on the ground and in auction rooms around our wider region makes me feel comfortable with this prediction.

For instance, we are seeing a growing number auctions with multiple bidder registrations in most price ranges and for a variety of property types. We can cautiously suggest that the stage is set for a stronger market. Of course, there is still cause for caution globally with political and economic uncertainties at play. Having said that, the easing of foreign buyer policies at the high end of the market are another reason to make New Zealand an attractive investment option for some affluent foreigners.

I look after New Zealand Sotheby’s International Realty offices in the central North Island, and the trends in those offices north and south of Hawke’s Bay offer some insight. The market in Wairarapa is largely influenced by the Wellington market, and as has been well reported, Wellington’s property market is struggling. Up the road in Manawatu however is a rosier picture. Our agents in Palmerston North report that the market is starting to fire again.

There are signs of listings in shorter supply and an increase in buyer activity. Over the hill in Taupo, we have seen good activity from our team in this region throughout most of this year. Sales in the higher end are showing upward movements. Taupo, as a holiday market, is perhaps a barometer for a confident economy, and indicatively this is proving true in Kinloch for example, where we are seeing good lifts in transaction numbers. A little further north in our Cambridge office, we are also seeing transaction volume increases with premium properties in particular selling well.

In Hawke’s Bay the normal spring rush was slower to arrive than anticipated but is now in full swing with good sales happening on both sides of the river. Due to the earlier lag, the busy period might just extend higher activity levels closer to Christmas than what would be the norm. With 2026 being an election year, we would anticipate this to stimulate activity in the first half of the year.

I was in the fortunate position to the able to call the first charity auction at the recent Profit Unleashed event. It was great to be able to support Spark That Chat, a very worthy cause. I was buoyed to have a lot of keen bidders in the room from a variety of different businesses, perhaps a small reflection on growing confidence overall in the business sector. The curve is turning!