There is a phrase I have been using increasingly when talking about the property market: uncertainty fatigue. And that’s a good thing.
New Zealanders have had a lot to absorb over the past few years: interest rates, inflation, cost-of-living pressures, economic uncertainty and now another election on the horizon. For a long time, there have been plenty of reasons for buyers and sellers to pause and wait for greater clarity.
But eventually, people realise that complete certainty is unlikely to arrive. What we are seeing now is that people are becoming accustomed to uncertainty and, importantly, getting on with their lives and taking action again.
That is a positive development for the property market. The current market is not showing significant price volatility, making this one of the most stable markets we have seen for some time for those buying and selling in the same market.
The July REINZ figures reinforce that picture, with the national median sale price at $760,000, down just 0.7 percent year-on-year. Here in Hawke’s Bay, the regional median was $650,000, down 3 percent year-on-year.
A stable market to buy and sell in
For people buying and selling in the same market, this creates an important degree of stability. You are not necessarily trying to predict the perfect moment to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. You are making a decision based on your own circumstances within a market where prices are not experiencing significant fluctuations.
There are also encouraging signs in the buyer mix. First-home buyers now account for around 27 percent of New Zealand property buyers, while investors, after being largely absent for some time, are beginning to return. Competitive lending and attractive bank offers, including incentives around energy-efficient renovations, are helping create opportunities for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.
Momentum coming into spring
We are also seeing the first signs of spring momentum. Appraisal activity and forward listing conversations are increasing, suggesting more vendors are beginning to think seriously about moving.
It will be interesting to see whether the November election proves to be only a small blip on the broader property landscape. New Zealanders still need to move, downsize, upsize, invest and make decisions about their lives, regardless of the political calendar.
However, increased activity does not mean vendors can afford to be complacent.
Large listing supply continues to influence the market balance. With 24 weeks of inventory in Hawke’s Bay, buyers have plenty of choice and little reason to compromise.
The old adage that “your first offer is often your best offer” is particularly relevant in today’s environment.
A new listing has freshness and generates attention, but an unnecessarily long time on the market can change buyer perception. The longer a property lingers without a result, the more likely buyers are to question why it has not sold, potentially putting pressure on the eventual outcome.
That makes the choice of agent and method of sale increasingly important. Vendors should be looking for an agent and a method of sale that can demonstrably create momentum, actively manage buyers and shorten unnecessary days on market.
Well-presented and well-priced is key. The opportunity is not to wait for certainty, but to respond intelligently to the market we actually have.
Well-presented property, accurately priced for today and supported by strong marketing can still stand out. In a market where buyers have choice, preparation, positioning and a clear sales strategy matter.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign of all is that people are beginning to realise they do not need perfect conditions to make a move. We may not have certainty, but increasingly, people seem ready to get on with it.
Sabine Davison is an award-winning real estate professional with over two decades of experience across New Zealand. As General Manager of NZSIR in the central North Island, she leads strategy and growth while driving excellence in sales, coaching, and auctioneering.
